This Pinoy Weekly transcript of interview with Bayan’s Carol Araullo on former president Joseph Estrada’s upcoming verdict (then) may be a bit outdated, but I’m posting it for those who may still be interested. She puts to rest here issues that have been thrown against the progressive movement regarding its alliance with the Estrada camp versus the Arroyo regime. This was translated from the original Taglish.
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PW: What is the stand of Bagong Alyansang Makabayan on Estrada’s upcoming verdict?
CPA: Bayan has not changed it’s judgment on the Estrada regime, that it committed a crime against the people. In many aspects, not just plunder—the war in Mindanao, counter-insurgency, the derailment of peace talks. The political judgment has already come to pass because he has already been ousted. His ouster was already a judgment. Now this trial, Bayan filed a case because we believed that there is one. It was up to the Arroyo regime to provide a legal closure and a fair trial so that the plunder case could be judged with finality. The problem with the Arroyo government is from day one, it chose to treat the ousted Estrada regime from the point of view of what is good for her own administration. They were having secret talks on how he could escape the country. Because he was a headache for Arroyo, politically. From the actuations of the Arroyo government it became clearer and clearer that the trial will be hostaged by the political interest of this regime. In our observation, monitoring the trial in the first year and a half, it was using the carrot-and-stick approach. When his followers are able to show a serious effort to turn the tables and threaten the ouster of Arroyo, like in May 1, 2001, the government was beside itself wooing Estrada. There are times when they would kneel to him on the basis of the prevailing political situation. So in essence, the Arroyo government blew its opportunity to clinch a legal resolution of the fate of Estrada and prove once and for all that at least on the ground of plunder, her takeover was legitimate. She treated it as a political game . At this point, very few think that the outcome of the trial will be determined on the basis of merit. Many think that Arroyo cannot afford not to convict him…Considering the government’s crisis of legitimacy, this would be another blow. Arroyo would lose moral and political high ground, what little is left of it. So everybody, including the Estrada camp, is convinced that he would be convicted. At the very minimum for violation of the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices Act. Arroyo would find a scenario of conviction more manageable. Now, if Estrada is convicted, will the people be happy, the people who are looking for closure? No, because in such crimes, what is important is the lessons that are learned, i.e. that corrupt officials are not going to get away with their crimes. Is this the lesson we learn with the Estrada plunder case? No, the conclusion here is that GMA is better at political maneuvering than Erap; she is more cunning, ruthless, and able to manipulate people and things to stay in power. Unlike Estrada who was outmaneuvered by his opponents. So the conviction, it doesn’t mean much. The people have long lost interest in pursuing the case and mobilizing for it because as time passed, it was no longer an issue of the people vs. Erap. It became an issue of Erap vs. GMA. Now, the political verdict at EDSA 2 is another issue. That cannot anymore be overturned.
PW: What do you think of the observation that EDSA 2 has spawned a much worse regime?
CPA: Gloria has turned out to be a much worse fascist puppet of imperialism, this is evident in the rise of extra-judicial killings, enforced disappearances and other grave human rights violations in the guise of fighting terrorism. The people’s struggle against a succession of fascist puppet regimes is a continuing struggle. What is important are the lessons learned by the people about the real and fundamental character of Philippine society and the kind of political system we have. In the process, the democratic forces should continue to gain strength. And that’s what’s important and crucial. Otherwise, there is the cynical view that there’s no point trying to struggle for any kind of reform in society because there’s always the possibility that things could get worse. The worsening of things, it’s not just Arroyo. The entire society, the entire ruling system is going through a period of deepgoing crisis. It’s like a rotten fruit that becomes even more rotten…The rottenness of Gloria, it was not Erap’s ouster that caused it. After Erap was ousted, the ruling elite-big business, the military that betrayed Erap—they quickly consolidated themselves politically under the Arroyo regime. So Arroyo really was a product of a system that tried to preserve itself after a convulsion. The lesson there should not be, let’s not anymore fight against a bad government because it can be replaced by something much worse. Although there are those among the politically backward who think that way, tricked by the pro-GMA camp who all of a sudden are drawing the wrong lessons — that People Power is a “mistake” and that it is “time we move forward”…A negative lesson there is a certain degree of political cynicism among those who expected that the EDSA 1 and 2 people’s uprisings were real revolutions that would lead to many sweeping, comprehensive changes and real reforms in the political system.They then saw that this was not the case. The question then is why did nothing happen by way of fundamental socio-economic-cultural and political reforms? You can conclude that maybe that kind of change and the way that change was brought about really has its limitations. Therefore there is a need for a struggle that would bring about deeper and more fundamental changes. Another direction is to think that nothing has changed, that they are all corrupt, so we should all just mind our own business, maybe go abroad as our only way to salvation. Actually, the reactionaries, those who benefited like Arroyo, de Venecia, the US, they want to make it appear that EDSA 1 and 2 were “mistakes” because after a period of euphoria, it was clear that the reactionaries, the ruling elite, once again took over. There’s a tendency to twist the lessons of the two uprisings, and come up with the conclusion that they were wrong. That the people were wrong in mobilizing and actively taking part in politics to bring down a rotten regime. It’s a kind of political cynicism that paralyzes people, that makes people insensitive to the rottenness of the system and resigned because nothing seems to happen. And whoever is in power, it’s favorable for them, objectively speaking.
PW: Is there a possibility of Estrada getting back to power?
CPA: If Estrada wants to overturn the political verdict on him, he has to redeem himself. If he fight Arroyo, casts his lot with the people, and supports the people’s struggle against a puppet fascist regime, he may redeem himself. Much better than going back to power. I think that’s no longer possible. But his plunder case, that’s already blown in a sense that it’s no longer a measure of his guilt or not. For those who believe that he is guilty, even if he is acquitted they would still believe that he is guilty because there really is a basis. But the trial has been too much hostage to the Arroyo regime’s political agenda. If he is convicted then the Estrada camp would say that they were not given their day in court and that politics decided it. Either way, it doesn’t provide closure legally. Politically, it can go many ways. In an event of an acquittal, many people would ask why he was ousted. In an event of a conviction, Arroyo would would have to deal with the fallout from there, with the people who believe that the case was pre-judged and whose judgment of Erap is kinder in the light of Gloria’s regime. Because the stench of Estrada is overpowered by the stench of Gloria.
PW: Why did the progressive forces align with the pro-Estrada forces in the fight against the Arroyo regime?
CPA: Objectively, Estrada is no longer in power. As a progressive, you know that the main contradiction of the people is with the reactionary faction in power. Because they are the ones who wield the power of the state both to exploit and to oppress. The unfinished business with Erap is making him pay for whatever criminal acts he engaged in; in way is through the courts. History has already made him pay. One thing you can say of him, he has remained steadfast in his fight against Gloria. He could have capitulated, he could have accepted the blandishments of the Arroyo regime to make it easier on him. But he fought it, in politics, in the elections, in street mobilizations, in exposing anomalies, he spent for those. In that sense, objectively he’s an ally because he is ranged with the forces that are fighting against the main enemy. Without being blind to the fact that before he was, at one time, the one being fought because he was then the chief representative of the ruling elite. Now it’s Gloria. And Erap showed strength in fighting Arroyo, for his own reasons. Whether those are just selfish reasons, or those are imbued with reasons of love for country and principles, only history will tell. But for that the Left recognizes that between Arroyo and Estrada, he is more popular now… It’s a different issue whether his anti-GMA stance will continue in a healthy direction towards real reforms in society. It’s still a long story, Arroyo has three years left. After 2010 a lot of things can still happen. So the political judgment on Erap, I think that it’s still open-ended because he’s still in the Opposition. To what extent his being a key figure in the Opposition will help to redeem him of his stint when he was still president, we have yet to see. So are we going to celebrate his conviction? No, because I think to a certain extent the weakening of Estrada is a weakening of the opposition. And right now the bourgeoisie opposition is still needed in the fight against GMA. Is it against our principles? No. Because the Left did not and will not exonerate Erap. The Left has never taken any position that EDSA 2 was a mistake. But the way things stand, whoever will join the national democratic movement against a repressive and brutal regime, the Left will unite with them. That’s the rule of struggle.
PW: In what ways is the Arroyo regime worse than the Estrada regime?
CPA: In her brutality, giving her blessings to the policy to exterminate the legal Left and those who support the movement. In scuttling the peace talks and going on an “all out war” not just against armed combatants like the NPA and MILF, but unarmed supporters or even just civilians who got “caught in the crossfire”. In economic policies, in imposing additional tax through the EVAT. If you take a look at the billions of pesos that the government rakes in from the EVAT, it gives you an impression of how much they bleed the people dry and use their money for debt servicing, for oppression, for corruption. And in being completely servile to the US, she really takes the cake. Of course the Visiting Forces Agreement was during the Estrada regime. But the Mutual Logistics Support Agreement, giving full range to the participation of US troops and foreign intervention, was all in Gloria’s time. Almost the whole world has awakened to the duplicity of the “war on terror” and Iraq war, but Arroyo just acepts what the Bush government dishes out, hook, line and sinker. Because in the final analysis she is counting on the US and the military to remain in power.
PW: You think that a guilty verdict would really weaken Estrada?
CPA: Weakened in the sense that in the short term, it can weaken his hand because there are still sections of the populace who will translate his conviction as a kind of legitimacy for GMA. But I’m not saying that statically. For the pro-Erap forces, their cause will remain alive because who they believe to be their leader is still being oppressed. For those who are angry at Arroyo and look kindly upon Erap because by perception he seems better, the anti-GMA sentiment can be bolstered by a conviction that is deemed to be self-serving. So it depends on how the Estrada camp plays it. He can use a conviction as proof that the Arroyo administration really bastardized the judicial system for her own agenda. The only problem is while Erap is in jail, his room for maneuver, e.g. wielding the opposition to deal harder blows againt Estrada is really constrained. It’s hard to estimate the situation if he can only listen to those who surround you, many of whom can’t be trusted and only want his money. If he is out on bail, he will be free to fight Gloria. In that sense, that kind of a conviction might not be bad. Another scenario is for GMA to say that the courts have spoken, but I will be benevolent and grant pardon. But Erap has taken a fighting stance against pardon, saying that he is not guilty. And many believe him. So he may be able to utilize even a conviction in order to strengthen his standing in the eyes of the people because everytime Erap stands up to Gloriahe is able to personify the anti-GMA sentiments.
PW: But shouldn’t the mass movement, and not Estrada, personify anti-GMA sentiments?
CPA: I’m talking about a perception of the people, especially the toiling people. It’s not something you can prescribe to them. Of course the Left has a long track record of fighting for fundamental change. We are not fixated on whoever is in power. There’s also such a thing as, advanced, middle, and backward masses. For the advanced masses, it is clear that there is no messiah. Definitely they won’t be fooled that Erap is one. But for the middle and backward forces, they can still think that way especially those who can’t think of a movement pushing for change that is not identified with personalities or within the frame of reactionary politics wherein the opposition needs personification. That is a natural consequence, for people who don’t have a high level of political consciousness and an ability to assess the situation. For that section of society, Erap is the man. I’m not saying that those who refuse to forget Erap’s sins are only those that are advanced. There are also those from the middle forces who as far as they’re concerned, any proposal to restore Estrada is already anathema. That he already blew it, so don’t recycle him for us. Many are like that among the AB classes. Among the CD classes, there are also some. But for the masses who are not really politically aware, their gauge for leaders is who can reach out to them, whom they think is accessible, who speaks for them, who listens to them. They would rather be screwed by somebody who has the common touch rather than be screwed by somebody like Gloria who acts like she is such an intellectual, do-gooder, and yet turns out to be just another thief.
PW: What is the implication of the upcoming verdict on the oust Arroyo movement?
CPA: Hopefully the verdict will empower the pro-Erap and anti-GMA forces to fight the US-Arroyo regime and with greater resolve, to join forces and reach out to the middle and backward sections of the population . It looks like the conditions for reconciliation is dim. Which is good for the people, objectively, is that Estrada and Arroyo continue to fight each other, meaning Erap does not capitulate to the demands of GMA (basically that he will not try to oust her utilizing his still considerable clout).